By Aderotimi Adedire
In Nigerian politics, alignments and strategic partnerships often shape the road to power more than ideological consistency. As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu eyes a second term in 2027, one state stands out in the intricate political equation: Osun State, governed by Senator Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke.
To understand the weight Governor Ademola Adeleke holds today, his political journey must be quicky revisited. Often underestimated, Ademola Adeleke emerged from the shadows of political dynasties with his own brand of populism and charisma. Dubbed the “Dancing Senator,” many tagged him as unserious. But behind the public image lies a man who understands grassroots mobilization, regional sentiment, and the value of political timing.
Ademola Adeleke’s rise began in 2017, when he surprisingly won the Osun West Senatorial seat under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), following the death of his elder brother, Late Isiaka Adeleke. In 2018, he nearly became governor but lost in a controversial rerun. In 2022, he returned with strategic vengeance, defeating incumbent Governor, Gboyega Oyetola of the APC, thereby solidifying his grip on Osun and proving his electoral potency.
Why do President Bola Tinubu needs Ademola Adeleke? President Tinubu, a political maestro in his own right, is not unaware of shifting political dynamics—especially in the North, where his popularity is reportedly waning. The 2023 presidential election showed that while Tinubu swept the South-West, he did so with tighter margins than expected in key states like Osun. To secure his re-election in 2027, Tinubu must lock down the South-West completely. That includes winning Osun State, a PDP stronghold under Adeleke.
The calculation is simple: Adeleke holds the keys to the state—through his governorship, the loyalty of the masses, and the influence of the Adeleke political dynasty. Winning Osun in 2027 without Adeleke’s support would require a political miracle or a deeply unpopular Adeleke in office, neither of which seem likely at the moment.
Decamping or no decamping, Ademola Adeleke finds himself in a unique position, one where he can play kingmaker, even while sitting on the throne.
1. If He Remains in PDP:
If Governor Adeleke stays in PDP, President Tinubu will have to negotiate, likely offering federal support for developmental projects, softening any opposition from Abuja, and ensuring Osun receives national attention. In return, Adeleke could offer “passive cooperation”, not working against Tinubu in 2027, and perhaps even facilitating a quiet PDP loss in Osun without rocking his own boat.
2. If He Decamps to APC:
This is the power move. Should Adeleke switch to APC, Tinubu would secure Osun and gain one of the most popular governors in the South-West under his party’s umbrella. It would send shockwaves through the PDP and consolidate Tinubu’s regional dominance. And here’s the blunt truth: if Adeleke defects, there’s little anyone, within PDP, APC or Osun, can do about it. In Nigerian politics, the president holds the federal machinery, and Tinubu is no stranger to wielding it to protect loyal allies.
On the issue of the former Osun Speaker, Timothy Owoye and other local political actors, they must understand the evolving equations of power. Politics is not a sentimental game, it’s arithmetic, geometry, and sometimes calculus.
You don’t oppose a sitting president who is looking for allies in your region. If Adeleke begins negotiating or even considering decamping, it means he’s reading the numbers right. Owoye and others would do well to take notes. If Tinubu needs Osun, and Ademola Adeleke controls Osun, then Adeleke becomes a political asset, not a liability, no matter the party.
The South-West is watching. The North is shifting. And the South-East is fragmented. In this landscape, Osun becomes a battleground state, and Ademola Adeleke, the dance-loving, grassroots-rooted governor, may just hold the deciding vote.
The reported meeting between the Adeleke family and President Tinubu shouldn’t be dismissed as mere formality. These are not social visits, they are chess moves. Tinubu knows he needs Ademola Adeleke and the Adeleke family knows their worth. And whether it ends in alliance, defection, or negotiation, the message is clear: politics in Nigeria is evolving rapidly, and 2027 will be decided by unlikely alliances and strategic boldness.
In Nigerian politics, loyalty is transactional, and influence is currency. Governor Ademola Adeleke is one of the most valuable political figures in the South-West today. Whether he stays in PDP or joins APC, his role in determining the fate of Osun, and possibly the nation, in 2027 is undeniable. President Tinubu knows this. The smart players do too.
The lesson here is simple: know when to dance, and know when to deal. And Ademola Adeleke? He’s doing both, with remarkable precision.
